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Optical Transmission Industry Will Recover by 2003 - Report
February 14, 2002
By Optically Networked Staff
While the worldwide optical transmission systems market struggled in 2001 as revenue dipped 10%, the market is forecast to show positive growth in 2002, according to Gartner Inc.'s (Quote) Dataquest unit.
In 2001, worldwide optical transmission revenue totaled $30.3 billion, down from 2000 revenue of $33.8 billion, Dataquest said. The industry is not projected to surpass 2000 revenue results until the end of 2003, when they will grow to $36 billion.
Worldwide optical transmission revenue in 2002 is projected to reach $32.6 billion, Dataquest also said.
"While the market in 2003 will be similar in size to the market in 2000, its nature will have changed significantly," said Peter Kjeldsen, senior analyst with Gartner Dataquest's EMEA Telecommunications group, in a statement. "Consolidation in the market will have changed the number of vendors and operators, and their relative strengths are likely to have changed as well. The drivers for this change include a continued increase in the demand for bandwidth, introduction of an optical layer to handle DWDM channels intelligently and a continued migration of the fiber optic technology towards the edge of the network -- most noticeably in metro networks."
Regional differences exist in the dynamics of the market, Dataquest also said. Based on revenue, North America is the dominant region followed by Western Europe and Asia/Pacific. The North American and Western Europe markets declined 19.6% and 2.3% respectively, in 2001.
The bright spot in the market shined on the Asia/Pacific region, which grew 18.8%, driven by strong growth in the Chinese market of 27.3%.
"The Chinese market is the obvious attraction right now," said Kjedsen. "But because it is so obvious an opportunity, many players will try to address this market, so the competition will heat up."
In terms of technology, Synchronous Digital Hierarchy/Synchronous Optical Network (SDH/SONET) dominates, with dense-wavelength-division multiplexing (DWDM) in second place.
Additional information is available in the Gartner Dataquest Market Statistics report Worldwide Optical Transmission Systems Market Share and Forecast, 1996-2005.
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