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The market for 10-Gbps ports on telecommunications and data communications equipment will grow from $2.1 billion in 2006 to $4.8 billion by 2010, according to a new report from CIR, a Charlottesville, Va.-based market research and consulting firm.
This increase will represent growth from 221,000 ports to 1.6 million ports shipped over the same period, as 10 GbE follows earlier Ethernet technologies into its mass market phase, the firm's "The Market for 10-G and 40-G Modules and
Components: 2006-2013" report.
The CIR report cites the following trends:
Shifting MSAs. For module makers, XFP and X2 modules are currently the high growth opportunities. CIR says that module firms should initially focus on X2 and XENPAK modules for short- and intermediate-reach 10-GbE ports. After 2007, XFP and X2 will come to dominate module sales. The report notes that JDS Uniphase and Finisar have benefited from being among the first firms to adopt the latest MSAs.
Competing on technology. Even though the 10-G market is rapidly becoming commoditized and is seeing a massive transfer of production facilities to Asia, CIR says that established firms will be able to conserve market share through innovations in materials and production technology. The report sees particular hope in robotic manufacturing processes and new materials platforms — especially silicon photonics.
At last 40 Gbps. CIR claims that by 2008, 40-Gbps port shipments will begin to take off commercially. Although to date, 40-Gbps modules have been used mostly in R&D and service provider trials, CIR reports that 40-Gbps ports will be increasingly found on very large core routers and ultimately on SONET/SDH ADMs after that date. By 2008, CIR expects that many of the thorny issues — involving dispersion, new materials and fiber non-linearities — will have been resolved and the price for 40-Gbps modules will have gone down considerably. It notes that although there have been few 40-Gbps announcements in the past couple of years, some of the largest module and component manufacturers, including Avanex, CyOptics, Fujitsu, JDS, Opnext and Oki, have had 40-Gbps programs in the past which could be revived.
According to CIR, "The Market for 10-G and 40-G Modules and Components: 2006-2013" covers the latest developments in 10-G networking for routers, fixed and modular Ethernet switches, servers, ADMs and cross connects and WDM multiplexers. It also analyzes the markets for optical modules (including the latest MSA developments) and component technology.
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