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After years of disappointing performance, the market for 10Gbps systems is poised to reach $3.2 billion in 2008, according to CIR, a Charlottesville, Va.-based analyst firm. The company predicts a modest recovery next year, followed by stronger growth in 2005.
Although the firm expects the bulk of 10 Gbps deployments will still be in the long haul
throughout the period, it predicts that the growth will come from metro networks and, especially, the access and enterprise segments.
Key drivers for the deployment of 10 Gbps include the following, according to CIR's The Market at 10 Gbps: A Value Chain Analysis:
Bandwidth hungry protocols, such as ESCON, Fibre Channel and Gigabit Ethernet,
are becoming more widely deployed and are supported over metro or
regional areas rather than nationally or internationally.
Broadband networks, CIR reports, have reached the point that they now require 10 Gbps
aggregation.
Several million PCs and servers
equipped with GbE will push the market forward for 10 Gbps
connectivity in both the wiring closet and in backbone applications.
OC-192 SONET/SDH transport will remain the
largest spending category, CIR reports, but
technologies such as Wave Division Multiplexing (WDM), 10 Gbps Ethernet and 10
Gbps ATM will achieve higer growth rates.
The analyst firm described the transition to 10
Gbps Ethernet and 10 Gbps ATM as "the natural evolutionary path to take for
networks that have traditionally relied on Ethernet and/or ATM." For example,
for corporate networks that have typically built their networks using Ethernet,
10 Gbps Ethernet offers seamless integration.
CIR also reports a resurgence of interest in WDM, but states that this time it will be
within the corporate network/SAN segments, where WDM is becoming a mainstream
solution for large end users.
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